varGuidTS: Variance-Guided Time-Series Modeling for Temporal Risk Detection

Fits balanced-panel autoregressive models with conditional heteroscedasticity for temporal risk detection. The main estimator combines autoregressive exogenous mean modeling with GARCH-X variance modeling, subject-specific baseline terms, shared population coefficients, and L1 penalization for high-dimensional covariates. The package returns conditional mean and variance estimates, coefficient summaries, simulations, and exceedance-based risk scores defined as estimated conditional threshold-exceedance probabilities. The implementation builds on the lasso of Tibshirani (1996) <doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x>, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity of Bollerslev (1986) <doi:10.1016/0304-4076(86)90063-1>, and L1-regularized high-dimensional time-series modeling of Medeiros and Mendes (2016) <doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.10.011>.

Version: 0.1.13
Depends: R (≥ 4.1.0)
Imports: stats, glmnet
Suggests: testthat (≥ 3.0.0)
Published: 2026-05-28
DOI: 10.32614/CRAN.package.varGuidTS (may not be active yet)
Author: Zihao Wang [aut], Min Lu [aut, cre]
Maintainer: Min Lu <luminwin at gmail.com>
BugReports: https://github.com/zionwzz/variance-guided-risk-demo/issues
License: MIT + file LICENSE
URL: https://github.com/zionwzz/variance-guided-risk-demo
NeedsCompilation: no
Materials: README, NEWS
CRAN checks: varGuidTS results

Documentation:

Reference manual: varGuidTS.html , varGuidTS.pdf

Downloads:

Package source: varGuidTS_0.1.13.tar.gz
Windows binaries: r-devel: not available, r-release: not available, r-oldrel: not available
macOS binaries: r-release (arm64): varGuidTS_0.1.13.tgz, r-oldrel (arm64): varGuidTS_0.1.13.tgz, r-release (x86_64): varGuidTS_0.1.13.tgz, r-oldrel (x86_64): varGuidTS_0.1.13.tgz

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