New models
- Add the Dixon-Coles model (
"dixon_coles") to
stan_foot(), static and dynamic, and to
mle_foot().
- Add the negative binomial model (
"neg_bin") to
mle_foot().
- Add
dynamic_par to choose the evolution variance: a
common variance (common_sd, Owen, 2011) or a variance
inflation after the summer break (kl_variance and
periods_per_season, Koopman and Lit, 2015).
- Add
dynamic_weight for the weighted dynamic models with
commensurate priors (Macrì Demartino, Egidi and Torelli, 2026), with
spike and slab hyperpriors set through dynamic_par$spike
and dynamic_par$slab.
Other changes
print.stanFoot() with teams keeps all the
global parameters and shows the team names in the team-indexed
parameters.foot_prob() supports the "dixon_coles" and
"neg_bin" MLE models.- Add an identifiability constraint to the Bradley-Terry-Davidson Stan
models.
- Extend the confidence intervals of
mle_foot() to the
model-specific parameters and move the MLE simulations to the internal
simulate_goals_mle().
- Rewrite the vignette.
Bug fixes
- Fix the likelihood of the static bivariate Poisson model.
- Draw
y_rep and y_prev of the bivariate
Poisson models from the bivariate Poisson distribution.
- Rewrite the diagonal-inflated bivariate Poisson model as in Karlis
and Ntzoufras (2003), with the new parameter
draw_dist for
the draws.
- Return
diff_y_prev in the bivariate Poisson and
diagonal-inflated bivariate Poisson models.
- Fix the AIC and BIC of
mle_foot() to count only the
free parameters of each model.
- Fix
foot_prob() for MLE models, which used
object$home instead of
object$home_effect.
- Fix
compare_foot() with NA rows in a
probability matrix, which misaligned the outcomes of the following
elements of source.
- Match
ranking in stan_foot() to the teams
by name instead of by position, with informative errors for missing or
duplicated teams.
- Fix the observed frequencies in
pp_foot(type = "aggregated") for models fitted with
predict > 0.
Documentation
- Update
foot_abilities() for the six MLE models.
- Fix the documentation of
italy, priors,
btd_foot(), compare_foot(),
plot_logStrength() and of norm_method and
rho in stan_foot().
- Updated vignette.
- Correct typo in foot_compare() description.
- Correct typo in pp_foot() description.
- Migration from
rstan interface to CmdStanR
interface.
- Add support for the
VI, pathfinder and
laplace algorithms.
- Add pre-compiled CmdStan models using the package
instantiate.
- Add AIC and BIC output elements in
mle_foot().
- Add Bayesian static/dynamic Negative Binomial model in
stan_foot().
- Minor
ggplot2 edits on foot_rank(),
foot_abilities() and pp_foot().
- Updated vignette.
- Bradley-Terry model for abilities.
- Dynamic ranking in the models.
- Updated vignette.
- Probabilistic predictive performance (pseudo-R squared, Brier score,
etc.).
- Inclusion of diagonal-inflated bivariate Poisson and zero-inflated
Skellam models.
- Minor edits and drop engsoccerdata dependence.
- Updated vignette.
- First submission to CRAN.